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The projected standard deviation in cassava yield, which measures year-to-year fluctuations in yields, under the low-emissions climate scenario SSP126. Standard deviations are calculated at currently cultivated areas and aggregated to the national-level for each decade from 2026-2095 as compared to historical reference period 1983-2013. The crop model simulations isolate the climate signal and assume no changes or adaptation in farm management. The projections are based on multi-model ensemble impact simulations from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) including 1 leading global process-based crop model, forced by 5 CMIP6 climate models at 0.5° spatial resolution. For more details, see Jägermeyr et al. 2021 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00400-y).
It is important to not only evaluate mean yield changes, but also how the changing climate will impact inter-annual crop yield fluctuations and the broader implications for food production and food security. Evaluating where yield fluctuations may increase can be used to plan food productivity responses and other adaptation strategies. GGCMI provides the largest ensemble of climate impact projections in global agriculture currently available. Using a multi-model ensemble increases the robustness of the results and allows to assess uncertainty by combining outputs from multiple different models, rather than relying on a single data point.
The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are scenarios that describe different possible futures, including factors like population growth, economic development, and urbanization, which are combined with climate policies to project future greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The low-emissions scenario, SSP126, assumes strong climate action and international cooperation, with global emissions cut to net zero around mid-century. It represents a pathway that limits warming to approximately 1.5-2°C by 2100. The high-emissions scenario, SSP370, reflects a more fragmented world with minimal climate policy and continued reliance on fossil fuels. Greenhouse gas emissions remain high throughout the century, leading to approximately 3-4°C of warming by 2100.