Sorghum: Projected crop failure risk (once-per-decade event) under a high-emissions climate scenario

Definition

The projected likelihood of sorghum failure for a once-per-decade historical event or with a 10% chance of occurring each year historically under the low-emissions climate scenario SSP126. Projected likelihoods over 10% show an increased risk over baseline. Results are calculated at currently cultivated areas and aggregated to the national level for each decade from 2026-2095 as compared to historical reference period 1983-2013. The crop model simulations isolate the climate signal and assume no changes or adaptation in farm management. The projections are based on multi-model ensemble impact simulations from the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) including 12 leading global process-based crop models, each forced by 5 CMIP6 climate models at 0.5° spatial resolution. For more details, see Jägermeyr et al. 2021 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-021-00400-y).

Relevance

It is important to not only evaluate mean yield changes, but also how the changing climate will impact inter-annual crop yield variability and crop failures and the broader implications for food production and food security. Evaluating where crops may fail can be used to plan food productivity responses and other adaptation strategies. GGCMI provides the largest ensemble of climate impact projections in global agriculture currently available. Using a multi-model ensemble increases the robustness of the results and allows to assess uncertainty by combining outputs from multiple different models, rather than relying on a single data point.

Additional Information

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are scenarios that describe different possible futures, including factors like population growth, economic development, and urbanization, which are combined with climate policies to project future greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The low-emissions scenario, SSP126, assumes strong climate action and international cooperation, with global emissions cut to net zero around mid-century. It represents a pathway that limits warming to approximately 1.5-2°C by 2100. The high-emissions scenario, SSP370, reflects a more fragmented world with minimal climate policy and continued reliance on fossil fuels. Greenhouse gas emissions remain high throughout the century, leading to approximately 3-4°C of warming by 2100.